Please consider submitting an abstract to session #GC061 of the 2016 American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting (Dec. 12-16, San Francisco). Abstracts are due August 3, 2016.

Session ID#: 13059:
GC061: Scenario Approaches to Understand Arctic Futures

Session Description:
Consideration of alternative scenarios for the medium-long term future of the Arctic region can be a powerful approach to synthesis of disparate trends in support of enhanced understanding of the possibilities. Scenario approaches use a variety of scales of analysis to understand the social-ecological systems of a region (or sub-regions), bringing together geoscience, biological science, and interactions of these natural systems with regional and global populations. This session will feature presentations from pioneering research groups involved in Arctic scenario analysis. The audience will learn how these different approaches were developed and structured, and what insights they have produced about possible and likely Arctic futures. Arctic scenarios development is often informed by inputs from global and regional models of climate, atmosphere, marine, and terrestrial change. As a focus, session participants will also be asked to consider how such physical models might be improved to better inform and support more robust scenarios.

Conveners: Robert H. Rich (ARCUS), Helen V. Wiggins (ARCUS), Brit Myers (ARCUS), Caspar M. Ammann (University Corporation for Atmospheric Research)

Abstract submission deadline: Wednesday, 3 August 2016.

https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm16/preliminaryview.cgi/Session13059